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Ezulwini United vs Manzini Wanderers — Premier League 2020

Ezulwini United
Ezulwini United
FT
3 – 0
Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
5/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ezulwini United39%
×Draw28%
Manzini Wanderers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ezulwini United
1.25
Manzini Wanderers
1.13

Ezulwini United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ezulwini United
0.98
Manzini Wanderers
0.99

allows per match

Ezulwini United
1.27
Manzini Wanderers
1.52

finishing

Ezulwini United+0.00on par
Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezulwini United ↓

Manzini Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ezulwini United or draw
67%
Ezulwini United or Manzini Wanderers
72%
Draw or Manzini Wanderers
61%

Winning margin

Ezulwini United wins by 2+
17%
Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ezulwini United 1+ goals
71%
Ezulwini United 2+ goals
36%
Ezulwini United 3+ goals
13%
Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
68%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
31%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)
54%
Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezulwini United at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezulwini United attack 0.98 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Ezulwini United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ezulwini United scores more
39%
level
28%
Manzini Wanderers scores more
33%

Ezulwini United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ezulwini United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ezulwini United 3–0 Manzini Wanderers

Ezulwini United beat Manzini Wanderers 3-0 in Premier League on May 7, 2026.