Ezulwini United 0–1 Manzini Sea Birds

Ezulwini United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manzini Sea Birds

10/26/2024

Premier League · Round 5Mhlume Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ezulwini United37%

×Draw27%

Manzini Sea Birds35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ezulwini UnitedExpected goals in this matchManzini Sea Birds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Ezulwini United

1.25

Manzini Sea Birds

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 85 away

0.98

creates per match

1.14

1.27

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Ezulwini United

0.98

Manzini Sea Birds

1.14

allows per match

Ezulwini United

1.27

Manzini Sea Birds

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ezulwini United+0.00on par

Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezulwini United ↓

Manzini Sea Birds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ezulwini United or draw

65%

Ezulwini United or Manzini Sea Birds

73%

Draw or Manzini Sea Birds

63%

Winning margin

Ezulwini United wins by 2+

16%

Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ezulwini United 1+ goals

71%

Ezulwini United 2+ goals

36%

Ezulwini United 3+ goals

13%

Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals

70%

Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals

34%

Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)

51%

Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezulwini United at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Manzini Sea Birds away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezulwini United attack 0.98 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.14 + Ezulwini United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ezulwini United scores more

37%

level

27%

Manzini Sea Birds scores more

35%

Ezulwini United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ezulwini United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff