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Ezeiza vs SAT Moreno — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Ezeiza
Ezeiza
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SAT Moreno
SAT Moreno
3/3/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 2Estadio 20 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ezeiza35%
×Draw30%
SAT Moreno35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ezeiza
1.02
SAT Moreno
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ezeiza
1.27
SAT Moreno
0.95

allows per match

Ezeiza
1.09
SAT Moreno
0.77

finishing

Ezeiza+0.00on par
SAT Moreno+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezeiza ↓

SAT Moreno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ezeiza or draw
65%
Ezeiza or SAT Moreno
70%
Draw or SAT Moreno
65%

Winning margin

Ezeiza wins by 2+
13%
SAT Moreno wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ezeiza 1+ goals
64%
Ezeiza 2+ goals
27%
Ezeiza 3+ goals
8%
SAT Moreno 1+ goals
64%
SAT Moreno 2+ goals
27%
SAT Moreno 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ezeiza (draw refunded)
50%
SAT Moreno (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezeiza at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

SAT Moreno away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezeiza attack 1.27 + SAT Moreno defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

SAT Moreno attack 0.95 + Ezeiza defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ezeiza scores more
35%
level
30%
SAT Moreno scores more
35%

Ezeiza at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ezeiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ezeiza vs SAT Moreno

Ezeiza and SAT Moreno drew 1-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio 20 de Octubre in Ezeiza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.