Eyüpspor 1–1 Pendikspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Eyüpspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pendikspor

R. Niyaz 25'

H. Kılıç 40' (pen)

4/22/2023

1. Lig · Round 34Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Eyüpspor46%

×Draw26%

Pendikspor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EyüpsporExpected goals in this matchPendikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.12

Eyüpspor

1.50

Pendikspor

1.12

Eyüpspor creates 34% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 57 away

1.65

creates per match

1.42

0.82

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Eyüpspor

1.65

Pendikspor

1.42

allows per match

Eyüpspor

0.82

Pendikspor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par

Pendikspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Pendikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw

72%

Eyüpspor or Pendikspor

74%

Draw or Pendikspor

54%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

23%

Pendikspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

78%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

44%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

19%

Pendikspor 1+ goals

67%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

31%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

62%

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Pendikspor away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.65 + Pendikspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pendikspor attack 1.42 + Eyüpspor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eyüpspor scores more

46%

level

26%

Pendikspor scores more

28%

Eyüpspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Babel

Eyüpspor · F

7.6

Match Events

25'

R. Niyaz↳ P. Dibba

38'

Recep Niyaz

40'

H. KılıçPenalty

46'

H. Akbunar← R. Niyaz

57'

Alihan Tuncer

69'

M. Pektemek← O. Thill

69'

S. Kurt← İ. Akdağ

72'

A. Yazar← A. Tunçer

72'

Aias Aosman← A. Ildız

78'

G. Bitin← O. Çağlayan

82'

Uğur Demirok

87'

U. Bulut← T. İlter

90+4'

T. Tekdal← H. Kılıç

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EyüpsporPendikspor

Overview

62%Possession38%

22Total Shots8

8Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots8

2On Target3

14Off Target3

6Blocked2

14Inside Box4

8Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

637Total Passes399

551Accurate Passes313

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1