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Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor — 1. Lig 2018

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
8/21/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 2Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Eyüpspor48%
×Draw27%
Kocaelispor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.45
Kocaelispor
0.99

Eyüpspor creates 46% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.65
Kocaelispor
1.16

allows per match

Eyüpspor
0.82
Kocaelispor
1.25

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par
Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
74%
Eyüpspor or Kocaelispor
73%
Draw or Kocaelispor
52%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
24%
Kocaelispor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
77%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
42%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
18%
Kocaelispor 1+ goals
63%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
26%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
65%
Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.65 + Kocaelispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kocaelispor attack 1.16 + Eyüpspor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
48%
level
27%
Kocaelispor scores more
26%

Eyüpspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Eyüpspor 2–0 Kocaelispor

Eyüpspor beat Kocaelispor 2-0 in 1. Lig on August 21, 2023.

The match was played at Eyüp Stadı in İstanbul.