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Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
12/25/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 17Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Eyüpspor45%
×Draw28%
Erzurumspor FK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.35
Erzurumspor FK
0.99

Eyüpspor creates 36% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 110 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.65
Erzurumspor FK
1.16

allows per match

Eyüpspor
0.82
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
73%
Eyüpspor or Erzurumspor FK
72%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
55%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
21%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
74%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
39%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
15%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
63%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
26%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
62%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.65 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Eyüpspor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
45%
level
28%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
27%

Eyüpspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Eyüpspor 3–0 Erzurumspor FK

Eyüpspor beat Erzurumspor FK 3-0 in 1. Lig on December 25, 2023.

The match was played at Eyüp Stadı in İstanbul.