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Eyüpspor vs Bursaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bursaspor
Bursaspor
3/10/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 22Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Eyüpspor51%
×Draw24%
Bursaspor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.70
Bursaspor
1.11

Eyüpspor creates 53% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 53 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.65
Bursaspor
1.40

allows per match

Eyüpspor
0.82
Bursaspor
1.75

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par
Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Bursaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
75%
Eyüpspor or Bursaspor
76%
Draw or Bursaspor
49%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
28%
Bursaspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
82%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
51%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
24%
Bursaspor 1+ goals
67%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
30%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
67%
Bursaspor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.65 + Bursaspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bursaspor attack 1.40 + Eyüpspor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
51%
level
24%
Bursaspor scores more
25%

Eyüpspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Eyüpspor 4–0 Bursaspor

Eyüpspor beat Bursaspor 4-0 in 1. Lig on March 10, 2022.

The match was played at Eyüp Stadı in İstanbul.