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Eyüpspor vs Bucaspor 1928 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bucaspor 1928
Bucaspor 1928
10/26/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundEyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Eyüpspor67%
×Draw20%
Bucaspor 192813%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
2.08
Bucaspor 1928
0.80

Eyüpspor creates 160% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.91
Bucaspor 1928
0.50

allows per match

Eyüpspor
1.09
Bucaspor 1928
2.25

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par
Bucaspor 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Bucaspor 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
87%
Eyüpspor or Bucaspor 1928
80%
Draw or Bucaspor 1928
33%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
42%
Bucaspor 1928 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
87%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
61%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
34%
Bucaspor 1928 1+ goals
55%
Bucaspor 1928 2+ goals
19%
Bucaspor 1928 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
83%
Bucaspor 1928 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Bucaspor 1928 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.91 + Bucaspor 1928 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.08

Bucaspor 1928 attack 0.50 + Eyüpspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
67%
level
20%
Bucaspor 1928 scores more
13%

Eyüpspor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eyüpspor vs Bucaspor 1928

Eyüpspor beat Bucaspor 1928 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at Eyüp Stadı in İstanbul.