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Eyüpspor vs Boluspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Boluspor
Boluspor
1/8/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 1Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eyüpspor56%
×Draw23%
Boluspor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.82
Boluspor
1.04

Eyüpspor creates 75% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.91
Boluspor
1.00

allows per match

Eyüpspor
1.09
Boluspor
1.73

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par
Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Boluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
79%
Eyüpspor or Boluspor
77%
Draw or Boluspor
44%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
32%
Boluspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
84%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
54%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
27%
Boluspor 1+ goals
65%
Boluspor 2+ goals
28%
Boluspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
72%
Boluspor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.91 + Boluspor defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.82

Boluspor attack 1.00 + Eyüpspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
56%
level
23%
Boluspor scores more
21%

Eyüpspor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Eyüpspor 1–0 Boluspor

Eyüpspor beat Boluspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on January 8, 2025.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.