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Eyüpspor vs Beykoz Anadolu — 1. Lig 2018

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
12/2/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 16Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Eyüpspor51%
×Draw26%
Beykoz Anadolu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.55
Beykoz Anadolu
0.97

Eyüpspor creates 60% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 69 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.65
Beykoz Anadolu
1.13

allows per match

Eyüpspor
0.82
Beykoz Anadolu
1.46

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par
Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
76%
Eyüpspor or Beykoz Anadolu
74%
Draw or Beykoz Anadolu
49%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
26%
Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
79%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
46%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
20%
Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
62%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
25%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
68%
Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.65 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.13 + Eyüpspor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
51%
level
26%
Beykoz Anadolu scores more
24%

Eyüpspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Eyüpspor 2–0 Beykoz Anadolu

Eyüpspor beat Beykoz Anadolu 2-0 in 1. Lig on December 2, 2022.

The match was played at Eyüp Stadı in İstanbul.