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Eyüpspor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
10/29/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 10Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Eyüpspor47%
×Draw26%
Bandırmaspor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.48
Bandırmaspor
1.04

Eyüpspor creates 42% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 110 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.65
Bandırmaspor
1.27

allows per match

Eyüpspor
0.82
Bandırmaspor
1.31

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
73%
Eyüpspor or Bandırmaspor
74%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
53%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
24%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
77%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
43%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
19%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
65%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
28%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
64%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.65 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Eyüpspor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
47%
level
26%
Bandırmaspor scores more
27%

Eyüpspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Eyüpspor 0–1 Bandırmaspor

Bandırmaspor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Eyüp Stadı in İstanbul.