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Extreme vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

Extreme
Extreme
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
4/29/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Extreme19%
×Draw28%
Nyasa Big Bullets53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extreme
0.69
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.35

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 96% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Extreme
0.80
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.23

allows per match

Extreme
1.47
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.57

finishing

Extreme+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extreme ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Extreme or draw
47%
Extreme or Nyasa Big Bullets
72%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
81%

Winning margin

Extreme wins by 2+
5%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Extreme 1+ goals
50%
Extreme 2+ goals
15%
Extreme 3+ goals
3%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
74%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
39%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Extreme (draw refunded)
27%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extreme at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extreme attack 0.80 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Extreme defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Extreme scores more
19%
level
28%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
53%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extreme vs Nyasa Big Bullets

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Extreme 1-0 in Super League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.