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Extreme vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Extreme
Extreme
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
9/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Extreme35%
×Draw28%
Moyale Barracks36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extreme
1.15
Moyale Barracks
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Extreme
0.80
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Extreme
1.47
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Extreme+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extreme ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Extreme or draw
64%
Extreme or Moyale Barracks
72%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
65%

Winning margin

Extreme wins by 2+
15%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Extreme 1+ goals
68%
Extreme 2+ goals
32%
Extreme 3+ goals
11%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
69%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
33%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Extreme (draw refunded)
49%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extreme at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extreme attack 0.80 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Extreme defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Extreme scores more
35%
level
28%
Moyale Barracks scores more
36%

Moyale Barracks at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Extreme 0–2 Moyale Barracks

Moyale Barracks beat Extreme 2-0 in Super League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Nankhaka Stadium in Lilongwe.