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Extreme vs MAFCO — Super League 2026

Extreme
Extreme
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
MAFCO
MAFCO
8/20/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Extreme32%
×Draw29%
MAFCO39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extreme
1.06
MAFCO
1.19

MAFCO creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

Extreme
0.80
MAFCO
0.91

allows per match

Extreme
1.47
MAFCO
1.31

finishing

Extreme+0.00on par
MAFCO+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extreme ↓

MAFCO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Extreme or draw
61%
Extreme or MAFCO
71%
Draw or MAFCO
68%

Winning margin

Extreme wins by 2+
13%
MAFCO wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Extreme 1+ goals
65%
Extreme 2+ goals
29%
Extreme 3+ goals
9%
MAFCO 1+ goals
70%
MAFCO 2+ goals
33%
MAFCO 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Extreme (draw refunded)
45%
MAFCO (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extreme at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

MAFCO away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extreme attack 0.80 + MAFCO defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

MAFCO attack 0.91 + Extreme defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Extreme scores more
32%
level
29%
MAFCO scores more
39%

MAFCO at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Extreme 2–1 MAFCO

Extreme beat MAFCO 2-1 in Super League on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Nankhaka Stadium in Lilongwe.