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Extreme vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Extreme
Extreme
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
5/7/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Extreme29%
×Draw29%
Kamuzu Barracks42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extreme
0.96
Kamuzu Barracks
1.23

Kamuzu Barracks creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Extreme
0.80
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Extreme
1.47
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Extreme+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extreme ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Extreme or draw
58%
Extreme or Kamuzu Barracks
71%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
71%

Winning margin

Extreme wins by 2+
10%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Extreme 1+ goals
62%
Extreme 2+ goals
25%
Extreme 3+ goals
7%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
71%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
35%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Extreme (draw refunded)
40%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extreme at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extreme attack 0.80 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Extreme defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Extreme scores more
29%
level
29%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
42%

Kamuzu Barracks at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extreme vs Kamuzu Barracks

Kamuzu Barracks beat Extreme 4-1 in Super League on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.