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Extreme vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

Extreme
Extreme
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
12/3/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Extreme40%
×Draw29%
Chitipa United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extreme
1.17
Chitipa United
0.97

Extreme creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

creates per match

Extreme
0.80
Chitipa United
0.48

allows per match

Extreme
1.47
Chitipa United
1.54

finishing

Extreme+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extreme ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Extreme or draw
70%
Extreme or Chitipa United
71%
Draw or Chitipa United
60%

Winning margin

Extreme wins by 2+
17%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Extreme 1+ goals
69%
Extreme 2+ goals
33%
Extreme 3+ goals
11%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
62%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
25%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Extreme (draw refunded)
57%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extreme at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extreme attack 0.80 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Extreme defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Extreme scores more
40%
level
29%
Chitipa United scores more
30%

Extreme at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Extreme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extreme vs Chitipa United

Chitipa United beat Extreme 2-1 in Super League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Chitowe Stadium in Nkhotakota.