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Extreme vs Blue Eagles — Super League 2026

Extreme
Extreme
FT
0 – 3
Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
10/28/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Extreme27%
×Draw29%
Blue Eagles44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extreme
0.88
Blue Eagles
1.22

Blue Eagles creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 67 away

creates per match

Extreme
0.80
Blue Eagles
0.97

allows per match

Extreme
1.47
Blue Eagles
0.96

finishing

Extreme+0.00on par
Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extreme ↓

Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Extreme or draw
56%
Extreme or Blue Eagles
71%
Draw or Blue Eagles
73%

Winning margin

Extreme wins by 2+
9%
Blue Eagles wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Extreme 1+ goals
59%
Extreme 2+ goals
22%
Extreme 3+ goals
6%
Blue Eagles 1+ goals
70%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
34%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Extreme (draw refunded)
38%
Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extreme at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extreme attack 0.80 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Extreme defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Extreme scores more
27%
level
29%
Blue Eagles scores more
44%

Blue Eagles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extreme vs Blue Eagles

Blue Eagles beat Extreme 3-0 in Super League on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.