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Extremadura vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zamora
Zamora
12/4/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura29%
×Draw26%
Zamora46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.14
Zamora
1.52

Zamora creates 33% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 69 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
Zamora
1.04

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
Zamora
1.28

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Zamora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
54%
Extremadura or Zamora
74%
Draw or Zamora
71%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
11%
Zamora wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
68%
Extremadura 2+ goals
32%
Extremadura 3+ goals
11%
Zamora 1+ goals
78%
Zamora 2+ goals
45%
Zamora 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
38%
Zamora (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Zamora attack 1.04 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Extremadura scores more
29%
level
26%
Zamora scores more
46%

Zamora at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Extremadura 2–2 Zamora

Extremadura and Zamora drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.