Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Extremadura vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
CANC
16:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
3/20/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura29%
×Draw25%
UD Logroñés46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.17
UD Logroñés
1.53

UD Logroñés creates 31% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
UD Logroñés
1.33

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
54%
Extremadura or UD Logroñés
75%
Draw or UD Logroñés
71%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
12%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
69%
Extremadura 2+ goals
33%
Extremadura 3+ goals
11%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
78%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
45%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
39%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Extremadura scores more
29%
level
25%
UD Logroñés scores more
46%

UD Logroñés at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura vs UD Logroñés — Match Preview

Extremadura face UD Logroñés on March 20, 2022 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Extremadura host UD Logroñés at Estadio Francisco de la Hera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.