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Extremadura vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
9/26/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura32%
×Draw26%
Rayo Majadahonda43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.23
Rayo Majadahonda
1.48

Rayo Majadahonda creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 72 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
57%
Extremadura or Rayo Majadahonda
74%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
68%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
13%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
71%
Extremadura 2+ goals
35%
Extremadura 3+ goals
13%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
77%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
43%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
42%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Extremadura scores more
32%
level
26%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
43%

Rayo Majadahonda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Extremadura 3–2 Rayo Majadahonda

Extremadura beat Rayo Majadahonda 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.