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Extremadura vs Ponferradina — Segunda División 2018

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
10/12/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Extremadura39%
×Draw29%
Ponferradina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.19
Ponferradina
1.07

Extremadura creates 11% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 84 away

creates per match

Extremadura
0.98
Ponferradina
0.94

allows per match

Extremadura
1.21
Ponferradina
1.40

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
67%
Extremadura or Ponferradina
71%
Draw or Ponferradina
61%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
16%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
70%
Extremadura 2+ goals
33%
Extremadura 3+ goals
12%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
66%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
29%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
54%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 0.98 + Ponferradina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ponferradina attack 0.94 + Extremadura defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Extremadura scores more
39%
level
29%
Ponferradina scores more
33%

Extremadura at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Extremadura 1–1 Ponferradina

Extremadura and Ponferradina drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.