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Extremadura vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Melilla
Melilla
3/14/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura45%
×Draw30%
Melilla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.17
Melilla
0.79

Extremadura creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.25
Melilla
1.00

allows per match

Extremadura
0.58
Melilla
1.08

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
75%
Extremadura or Melilla
70%
Draw or Melilla
55%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
19%
Melilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
69%
Extremadura 2+ goals
33%
Extremadura 3+ goals
11%
Melilla 1+ goals
55%
Melilla 2+ goals
19%
Melilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
64%
Melilla (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.25 + Melilla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Melilla attack 1.00 + Extremadura defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Extremadura scores more
45%
level
30%
Melilla scores more
25%

Extremadura at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Extremadura 2–1 Melilla

Extremadura beat Melilla 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.