Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Extremadura vs Don Benito — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Don Benito
Don Benito
1/27/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura57%
×Draw29%
Don Benito14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.33
Don Benito
0.50

Extremadura creates 166% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.25
Don Benito
0.42

allows per match

Extremadura
0.58
Don Benito
1.42

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Don Benito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
86%
Extremadura or Don Benito
71%
Draw or Don Benito
43%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
28%
Don Benito wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
74%
Extremadura 2+ goals
38%
Extremadura 3+ goals
15%
Don Benito 1+ goals
39%
Don Benito 2+ goals
9%
Don Benito 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
80%
Don Benito (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Don Benito away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.25 + Don Benito defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Don Benito attack 0.42 + Extremadura defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Extremadura scores more
57%
level
29%
Don Benito scores more
14%

Extremadura at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extremadura vs Don Benito

Extremadura and Don Benito drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.