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Extremadura vs CF Talavera — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CF Talavera
CF Talavera
1/27/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura34%
×Draw25%
CF Talavera41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.32
CF Talavera
1.47

CF Talavera creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 54 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
CF Talavera
0.94

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
CF Talavera
1.65

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
CF Talavera+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

CF Talavera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
59%
Extremadura or CF Talavera
75%
Draw or CF Talavera
66%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
15%
CF Talavera wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
73%
Extremadura 2+ goals
38%
Extremadura 3+ goals
15%
CF Talavera 1+ goals
77%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
43%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
45%
CF Talavera (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

CF Talavera away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + CF Talavera defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

CF Talavera attack 0.94 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Extremadura scores more
34%
level
25%
CF Talavera scores more
41%

CF Talavera at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Extremadura 0–2 CF Talavera

CF Talavera beat Extremadura 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.