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Extremadura vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
CANC
16:00
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
3/5/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura26%
×Draw24%
Celta de Vigo II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.15
Celta de Vigo II
1.67

Celta de Vigo II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 120 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
51%
Extremadura or Celta de Vigo II
76%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
74%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
10%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
68%
Extremadura 2+ goals
32%
Extremadura 3+ goals
11%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
81%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
50%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
35%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Extremadura scores more
26%
level
24%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
49%

Celta de Vigo II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Extremadura host Celta de Vigo II

March 5, 2022: Extremadura take on Celta de Vigo II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Extremadura host Celta de Vigo II at Estadio Francisco de la Hera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.