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Extremadura vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
CANC
10:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
4/3/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura31%
×Draw25%
Athletic Club II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.23
Athletic Club II
1.51

Athletic Club II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 56 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
Athletic Club II
1.02

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
Athletic Club II
1.45

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
56%
Extremadura or Athletic Club II
75%
Draw or Athletic Club II
69%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
13%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
71%
Extremadura 2+ goals
35%
Extremadura 3+ goals
13%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
78%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
44%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
41%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Extremadura scores more
31%
level
25%
Athletic Club II scores more
44%

Athletic Club II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura face Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Extremadura hosting Athletic Club II. Match starts April 3, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Extremadura host Athletic Club II at Estadio Francisco de la Hera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.