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Extremadura UD II vs Villanovense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Villanovense
Villanovense
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 3Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Extremadura UD II35%
×Draw28%
Villanovense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura UD II
1.16
Villanovense
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 31 away

creates per match

Extremadura UD II
1.35
Villanovense
1.23

allows per match

Extremadura UD II
1.20
Villanovense
0.97

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par
Villanovense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

Villanovense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw
63%
Extremadura UD II or Villanovense
72%
Draw or Villanovense
65%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
14%
Villanovense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
69%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
32%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
11%
Villanovense 1+ goals
70%
Villanovense 2+ goals
34%
Villanovense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
48%
Villanovense (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Villanovense away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + Villanovense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Villanovense attack 1.23 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more
35%
level
28%
Villanovense scores more
37%

Villanovense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Villanovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura UD II 1 – 4 Villanovense

Villanovense beat Extremadura UD II 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera in Almendralejo.