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Extremadura UD II vs Moralo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moralo
Moralo
12/20/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 11Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Extremadura UD II37%
×Draw27%
Moralo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura UD II
1.29
Moralo
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 111 away

creates per match

Extremadura UD II
1.35
Moralo
1.39

allows per match

Extremadura UD II
1.20
Moralo
1.23

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par
Moralo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

Moralo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw
63%
Extremadura UD II or Moralo
73%
Draw or Moralo
63%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
16%
Moralo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
72%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
37%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
14%
Moralo 1+ goals
72%
Moralo 2+ goals
37%
Moralo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
50%
Moralo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Moralo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + Moralo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Moralo attack 1.39 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more
37%
level
27%
Moralo scores more
37%

Extremadura UD II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura UD II 0 – 1 Moralo

Moralo beat Extremadura UD II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera in Almendralejo.