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Extremadura UD II vs Jerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jerez
Jerez
12/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 13Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Extremadura UD II43%
×Draw26%
Jerez31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura UD II
1.45
Jerez
1.17

Extremadura UD II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 107 away

creates per match

Extremadura UD II
1.35
Jerez
1.15

allows per match

Extremadura UD II
1.20
Jerez
1.54

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par
Jerez+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

Jerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw
69%
Extremadura UD II or Jerez
74%
Draw or Jerez
57%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
21%
Jerez wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
77%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
42%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
18%
Jerez 1+ goals
69%
Jerez 2+ goals
33%
Jerez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
59%
Jerez (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Jerez away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + Jerez defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jerez attack 1.15 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more
43%
level
26%
Jerez scores more
31%

Extremadura UD II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura UD II 2 – 1 Jerez

Extremadura UD II beat Jerez 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera in Almendralejo.