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Extremadura UD II vs Aceuchal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
CANC
16:00
Aceuchal
Aceuchal
4/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 29Ciudad Deportiva de Almendralejo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Extremadura UD II47%
×Draw26%
Aceuchal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura UD II
1.48
Aceuchal
1.07

Extremadura UD II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Extremadura UD II
1.35
Aceuchal
0.95

allows per match

Extremadura UD II
1.20
Aceuchal
1.60

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par
Aceuchal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

Aceuchal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw
73%
Extremadura UD II or Aceuchal
74%
Draw or Aceuchal
53%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
23%
Aceuchal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
77%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
43%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
19%
Aceuchal 1+ goals
66%
Aceuchal 2+ goals
29%
Aceuchal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
63%
Aceuchal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Aceuchal away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + Aceuchal defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aceuchal attack 0.95 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more
47%
level
26%
Aceuchal scores more
27%

Extremadura UD II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura UD II vs Aceuchal — Match Preview

Extremadura UD II face Aceuchal on April 17, 2022 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Extremadura UD II host Aceuchal at Ciudad Deportiva de Almendralejo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.