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Extremadura 1924 vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura 1924
Extremadura 1924
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castuera
Castuera
4/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 30Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Extremadura 192472%
×Draw17%
Castuera11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura 1924
2.33
Castuera
0.79

Extremadura 1924 creates 195% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Extremadura 1924
3.06
Castuera
0.88

allows per match

Extremadura 1924
0.71
Castuera
1.59

finishing

Extremadura 1924+0.00on par
Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura 1924 ↓

Castuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Extremadura 1924 or draw
89%
Extremadura 1924 or Castuera
83%
Draw or Castuera
28%

Winning margin

Extremadura 1924 wins by 2+
48%
Castuera wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Extremadura 1924 1+ goals
90%
Extremadura 1924 2+ goals
67%
Extremadura 1924 3+ goals
41%
Castuera 1+ goals
55%
Castuera 2+ goals
19%
Castuera 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Extremadura 1924 (draw refunded)
87%
Castuera (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura 1924 at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura 1924 attack 3.06 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.33

Castuera attack 0.88 + Extremadura 1924 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Extremadura 1924 scores more
72%
level
17%
Castuera scores more
11%

Extremadura 1924 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Extremadura 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Extremadura 1924 2–0 Castuera

Extremadura 1924 beat Castuera 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.