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Extremadura 1924 vs Badajoz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura 1924
Extremadura 1924
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Badajoz
Badajoz
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 26Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Extremadura 192457%
×Draw23%
Badajoz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura 1924
1.87
Badajoz
1.03

Extremadura 1924 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

Extremadura 1924
3.06
Badajoz
1.35

allows per match

Extremadura 1924
0.71
Badajoz
0.68

finishing

Extremadura 1924+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura 1924 ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Extremadura 1924 or draw
79%
Extremadura 1924 or Badajoz
77%
Draw or Badajoz
43%

Winning margin

Extremadura 1924 wins by 2+
33%
Badajoz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Extremadura 1924 1+ goals
85%
Extremadura 1924 2+ goals
56%
Extremadura 1924 3+ goals
29%
Badajoz 1+ goals
64%
Badajoz 2+ goals
28%
Badajoz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Extremadura 1924 (draw refunded)
73%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura 1924 at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Badajoz away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura 1924 attack 3.06 + Badajoz defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.87

Badajoz attack 1.35 + Extremadura 1924 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Extremadura 1924 scores more
57%
level
23%
Badajoz scores more
21%

Extremadura 1924 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Extremadura 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extremadura 1924 vs Badajoz

Extremadura 1924 beat Badajoz 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.