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Expressinho vs Tupan — Maranhense - 2 2026

Expressinho
Expressinho
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Tupan
Tupan
9/17/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 2Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Expressinho27%
×Draw20%
Tupan53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Expressinho
1.67
Tupan
2.38

Tupan creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Expressinho
0.83
Tupan
1.25

allows per match

Expressinho
3.50
Tupan
2.50

finishing

Expressinho+0.00on par
Tupan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 77Under: 2377%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 74No: 2674%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Expressinho ↓

Tupan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Expressinho or draw
47%
Expressinho or Tupan
80%
Draw or Tupan
73%

Winning margin

Expressinho wins by 2+
13%
Tupan wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Expressinho 1+ goals
81%
Expressinho 2+ goals
50%
Expressinho 3+ goals
23%
Tupan 1+ goals
91%
Tupan 2+ goals
68%
Tupan 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Expressinho (draw refunded)
34%
Tupan (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Expressinho at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Tupan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Expressinho attack 0.83 + Tupan defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tupan attack 1.25 + Expressinho defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Expressinho scores more
27%
level
20%
Tupan scores more
53%

Tupan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tupan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: Expressinho 1–4 Tupan

Tupan beat Expressinho 4-1 in Maranhense - 2 on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.