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Express vs Viking II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Express
Express
CANC
11:00
Viking II
Viking II
9/19/20203. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 7Fevik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Express32%
×Draw20%
Viking II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
1.83
Viking II
2.25

Viking II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 33 away

creates per match

Express
1.86
Viking II
2.06

allows per match

Express
2.43
Viking II
1.79

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Viking II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Viking II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Express or draw
52%
Express or Viking II
80%
Draw or Viking II
68%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
16%
Viking II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
84%
Express 2+ goals
54%
Express 3+ goals
28%
Viking II 1+ goals
89%
Viking II 2+ goals
65%
Viking II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
40%
Viking II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Viking II away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.86 + Viking II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Viking II attack 2.06 + Express defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Express scores more
32%
level
20%
Viking II scores more
48%

Viking II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Express host Viking II

September 19, 2020: Express take on Viking II in 3. Division - Girone 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Express host Viking II at Fevik Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.