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Express vs Vidar — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Express
Express
FT
0 – 2
Vidar
Vidar
9/4/20213. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 5Fevik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Express31%
×Draw20%
Vidar49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
1.83
Vidar
2.31

Vidar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 32 away

creates per match

Express
1.86
Vidar
2.19

allows per match

Express
2.43
Vidar
1.81

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Vidar+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Vidar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Express or draw
51%
Express or Vidar
80%
Draw or Vidar
69%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
16%
Vidar wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
84%
Express 2+ goals
54%
Express 3+ goals
28%
Vidar 1+ goals
90%
Vidar 2+ goals
67%
Vidar 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
39%
Vidar (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Vidar away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.86 + Vidar defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Vidar attack 2.19 + Express defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Express scores more
31%
level
20%
Vidar scores more
49%

Vidar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Express 0 – 2 Vidar

Vidar beat Express 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Fevik Stadion in Fevik.