Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Express vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Express
Express
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Start II
Start II
10/4/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 23Fevik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Express45%
×Draw22%
Start II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
2.00
Start II
1.69

Express creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Express
1.15
Start II
1.38

allows per match

Express
2.00
Start II
2.85

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Express or draw
67%
Express or Start II
78%
Draw or Start II
55%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
25%
Start II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
86%
Express 2+ goals
59%
Express 3+ goals
32%
Start II 1+ goals
82%
Start II 2+ goals
50%
Start II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
58%
Start II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.15 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Start II attack 1.38 + Express defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Express scores more
45%
level
22%
Start II scores more
33%

Express at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Express 2–1 Start II

Express beat Start II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 4, 2022.

The match was played at Fevik Stadion in Fevik.