Express 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 II: Result & Stats

Express

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sarpsborg 08 II

9/12/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 20Fevik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Express47%

×Draw23%

Sarpsborg 08 II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExpressExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.39

Express

1.80

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.39

Express creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

0.77

2.00

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Express

1.15

Sarpsborg 08 II

0.77

allows per match

Express

2.00

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Express+0.00on par

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Sarpsborg 08 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Express or draw

70%

Express or Sarpsborg 08 II

77%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II

53%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+

26%

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals

83%

Express 2+ goals

54%

Express 3+ goals

27%

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals

75%

Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals

40%

Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)

61%

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Sarpsborg 08 II away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.15 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 0.77 + Express defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Express scores more

47%

level

23%

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more

30%

Express at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff