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Express vs Follo — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Express
Express
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Follo
Follo
4/9/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 1Fevik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Express22%
×Draw22%
Follo55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
1.15
Follo
1.93

Follo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Express
1.15
Follo
1.85

allows per match

Express
2.00
Follo
1.15

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Follo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Follo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Express or draw
45%
Express or Follo
78%
Draw or Follo
78%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
9%
Follo wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
68%
Express 2+ goals
32%
Express 3+ goals
11%
Follo 1+ goals
85%
Follo 2+ goals
57%
Follo 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
29%
Follo (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Follo away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.15 + Follo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Follo attack 1.85 + Express defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Express scores more
22%
level
22%
Follo scores more
55%

Follo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Express vs Follo

Follo beat Express 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Fevik Stadion in Fevik.