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Express vs Entebbe UPPC — Premier League 2019

Express
Express
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Entebbe UPPC
Entebbe UPPC
2/14/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Hamz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Express38%
×Draw30%
Entebbe UPPC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
1.10
Entebbe UPPC
1.00

Express creates 10% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 15 away

creates per match

Express
1.40
Entebbe UPPC
1.00

allows per match

Express
1.00
Entebbe UPPC
0.80

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Entebbe UPPC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Express or draw
68%
Express or Entebbe UPPC
70%
Draw or Entebbe UPPC
62%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
15%
Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
67%
Express 2+ goals
30%
Express 3+ goals
10%
Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals
63%
Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals
26%
Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
54%
Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Entebbe UPPC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.40 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + Express defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Express scores more
38%
level
30%
Entebbe UPPC scores more
32%

Express at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Express 0–0 Entebbe UPPC

Express and Entebbe UPPC drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Hamz Stadium.