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Express vs Buhimba Saints — Premier League 2019

Express
Express
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Buhimba Saints
Buhimba Saints
1/24/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Hamz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Express69%
×Draw19%
Buhimba Saints12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
2.13
Buhimba Saints
0.75

Express creates 184% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 14 away

creates per match

Express
1.40
Buhimba Saints
0.50

allows per match

Express
1.00
Buhimba Saints
2.86

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Buhimba Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Buhimba Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Express or draw
88%
Express or Buhimba Saints
81%
Draw or Buhimba Saints
31%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
44%
Buhimba Saints wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
88%
Express 2+ goals
63%
Express 3+ goals
35%
Buhimba Saints 1+ goals
53%
Buhimba Saints 2+ goals
17%
Buhimba Saints 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
85%
Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Buhimba Saints away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.40 + Buhimba Saints defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.13

Buhimba Saints attack 0.50 + Express defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Express scores more
69%
level
19%
Buhimba Saints scores more
12%

Express at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Express vs Buhimba Saints

Express beat Buhimba Saints 3-1 in Premier League on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Hamz Stadium.