Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Exmouth vs Falmouth Town — League #56 2026

Exmouth
Exmouth
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Falmouth Town
Falmouth Town
2/14/2026League #56League #56 · Southern South - 31Complete Infrastructure Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Exmouth75%
×Draw16%
Falmouth Town9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exmouth
2.50
Falmouth Town
0.76

Exmouth creates 229% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Exmouth
2.17
Falmouth Town
1.18

allows per match

Exmouth
0.33
Falmouth Town
2.82

finishing

Exmouth+0.00on par
Falmouth Town+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exmouth ↓

Falmouth Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Exmouth or draw
91%
Exmouth or Falmouth Town
84%
Draw or Falmouth Town
25%

Winning margin

Exmouth wins by 2+
53%
Falmouth Town wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Exmouth 1+ goals
92%
Exmouth 2+ goals
71%
Exmouth 3+ goals
45%
Falmouth Town 1+ goals
53%
Falmouth Town 2+ goals
18%
Falmouth Town 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Exmouth (draw refunded)
89%
Falmouth Town (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exmouth at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Falmouth Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exmouth attack 2.17 + Falmouth Town defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.50

Falmouth Town attack 1.18 + Exmouth defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Exmouth scores more
75%
level
16%
Falmouth Town scores more
9%

Exmouth at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Exmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Exmouth vs Falmouth Town

Exmouth beat Falmouth Town 3-1 in League #56 on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Complete Infrastructure Stadium in Exmouth, Devonshire.