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Exeter City W vs Worthing W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Exeter City W
Exeter City W
AET
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Worthing W
Worthing W
12/8/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundCoach Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Exeter City W43%
×Draw18%
Worthing W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City W
3.15
Worthing W
3.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Exeter City W
3.80
Worthing W
4.00

allows per match

Exeter City W
2.00
Worthing W
2.50

finishing

Exeter City W+0.00on par
Worthing W+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City W ↓

Worthing W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Exeter City W or draw
61%
Exeter City W or Worthing W
82%
Draw or Worthing W
57%

Winning margin

Exeter City W wins by 2+
27%
Worthing W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Exeter City W 1+ goals
96%
Exeter City W 2+ goals
81%
Exeter City W 3+ goals
59%
Worthing W 1+ goals
95%
Worthing W 2+ goals
79%
Worthing W 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Exeter City W (draw refunded)
53%
Worthing W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
88%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City W at home — creates 3.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Worthing W away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City W attack 3.80 + Worthing W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.15

Worthing W attack 4.00 + Exeter City W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Exeter City W scores more
43%
level
18%
Worthing W scores more
39%

Exeter City W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Exeter City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Exeter City W 3–1 Worthing W

Exeter City W beat Worthing W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Coach Road in Newton Abbot, Devon.