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Exeter City W vs Cardiff City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Exeter City W
Exeter City W
FT
3 – 1
Cardiff City W
Cardiff City W
11/14/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundEdenvale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Exeter City W58%
×Draw17%
Cardiff City W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City W
3.30
Cardiff City W
2.20

Exeter City W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Exeter City W
3.80
Cardiff City W
2.40

allows per match

Exeter City W
2.00
Cardiff City W
2.80

finishing

Exeter City W+0.00on par
Cardiff City W+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City W ↓

Cardiff City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Exeter City W or draw
75%
Exeter City W or Cardiff City W
83%
Draw or Cardiff City W
42%

Winning margin

Exeter City W wins by 2+
40%
Cardiff City W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Exeter City W 1+ goals
96%
Exeter City W 2+ goals
83%
Exeter City W 3+ goals
62%
Cardiff City W 1+ goals
89%
Cardiff City W 2+ goals
64%
Cardiff City W 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Exeter City W (draw refunded)
70%
Cardiff City W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City W at home — creates 3.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Cardiff City W away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City W attack 3.80 + Cardiff City W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.30

Cardiff City W attack 2.40 + Exeter City W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Exeter City W scores more
58%
level
17%
Cardiff City W scores more
25%

Exeter City W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Exeter City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Exeter City W vs Cardiff City W

Exeter City W beat Cardiff City W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Edenvale Park in Cullompton, Devon.