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Exeter City vs Wigan — League One 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wigan
Wigan
11/8/2025League OneLeague One · Round 15St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Exeter City37%
×Draw27%
Wigan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.29
Wigan
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 116 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.23
Wigan
1.32

allows per match

Exeter City
1.21
Wigan
1.34

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
64%
Exeter City or Wigan
73%
Draw or Wigan
63%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
16%
Wigan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
72%
Exeter City 2+ goals
37%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%
Wigan 1+ goals
72%
Wigan 2+ goals
36%
Wigan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
51%
Wigan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wigan attack 1.32 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Exeter City scores more
37%
level
27%
Wigan scores more
36%

Exeter City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Exeter City 1–1 Wigan

Exeter City and Wigan drew 1-1 in League One on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter.