Exeter City 0–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tranmere

E. Nevitt 17'

12/11/2021

League Two · Round 21St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Exeter City50%

×Draw26%

Tranmere24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.96

Exeter City

1.50

Tranmere

0.96

Exeter City creates 56% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 144 away

1.53

creates per match

0.97

0.96

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Tranmere

0.97

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Tranmere

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

76%

Exeter City or Tranmere

74%

Draw or Tranmere

50%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

25%

Tranmere wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

78%

Exeter City 2+ goals

44%

Exeter City 3+ goals

19%

Tranmere 1+ goals

62%

Tranmere 2+ goals

25%

Tranmere 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

67%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Exeter City scores more

50%

level

26%

Tranmere scores more

24%

Exeter City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Collins

Exeter City · M

7.5

Match Events

17'

E. Nevitt

65'

Charlie Jolley

68'

P. Sweeney← A. Hartridge

69'

J. Caprice← J. Coley

72'

George Ray

78'

C. Merrie← E. Nevitt

79'

P. Amond← G. Ray

79'

L. O'Connor← J. Hawkes

82'

C. McManaman← C. Jolley

90+4'

Callum McManaman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterTranmere

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots11

15Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots11

1On Target5

5Off Target4

10Blocked2

11Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

476Total Passes237

350Accurate Passes115

74%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1