Exeter City 2–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

M. Jay 60'

T. Dieng 34'

4/23/2022

League Two · Round 44St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Exeter City49%

×Draw27%

Rochdale25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.95

Exeter City

1.45

Rochdale

0.95

Exeter City creates 53% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 56 away

1.53

creates per match

0.95

0.96

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

75%

Exeter City or Rochdale

73%

Draw or Rochdale

51%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

24%

Rochdale wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

77%

Exeter City 2+ goals

42%

Exeter City 3+ goals

18%

Rochdale 1+ goals

61%

Rochdale 2+ goals

25%

Rochdale 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

66%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Exeter City scores more

49%

level

27%

Rochdale scores more

25%

Exeter City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

P. Sweeney

Exeter City · D

8.2

Match Events

34'

51'

52'

57'

57'

C. O'Keeffe← J. McNulty

60'

75'

78'

80'

81'

85'

90'

C. Rowe← M. Jay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterRochdale

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots8

3Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target4

4Off Target1

5Blocked3

12Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

355Total Passes446

235Accurate Passes318

66%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1