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Exeter City vs Plymouth — League Two 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
N. Law 83', 42' (pen)
R. Williams 67'
T. Parkes 49'
10/26/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 16St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Exeter City40%
×Draw27%
Plymouth33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.29
Plymouth
1.15

Exeter City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 24 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.53
Plymouth
1.33

allows per match

Exeter City
0.96
Plymouth
1.04

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
67%
Exeter City or Plymouth
73%
Draw or Plymouth
60%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
18%
Plymouth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
72%
Exeter City 2+ goals
37%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%
Plymouth 1+ goals
68%
Plymouth 2+ goals
32%
Plymouth 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
55%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Exeter City scores more
40%
level
27%
Plymouth scores more
33%

Exeter City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
N. LawExeter CityExeter City · F
8.9

Match Events

12'
Callum McFadzean
39'
Ryan Bowman
42'
N. LawPenalty
49'
T. Parkes↳ R. Williams
52'
B. Moore← Z. Rudden
53'
D. Mayor← C. McFadzean
67'
R. Williams↳ A. Collins
71'
B. Clarke← J. Edwards
77'
Tom Parkes
83'
N. Law
85'
N. Atangana← L. Martin
86'
M. Jay← N. Law
89'
B. Seymour← R. Bowman
90'
Antoni Sarcevic

Possession

49%Exeter

Shots

16Exeter

Pass accuracy

53%Exeter

Statistics

ExeterPlymouth
Overview
49%Possession51%
16Total Shots6
4Corners4
16Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots6
4On Target3
6Off Target2
6Blocked1
8Inside Box4
8Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
360Total Passes363
259Accurate Passes234
72%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides6

Match Recap: Exeter City vs Plymouth

Exeter City beat Plymouth 4-0 in League Two on October 26, 2019.

Goals: N. Law (42' pen, 83'), T. Parkes (49'), R. Williams (67').

Plymouth controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 16.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.