Exeter City 0–2 Northampton: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

P. Brough 90+2'

S. Hoskins 20'

9/30/2023

League One · Round 10St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Exeter City50%

×Draw22%

Northampton28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.49

Exeter City

2.04

Northampton

1.49

Exeter City creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.56

creates per match

0.85

2.12

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Exeter City

1.56

Northampton

0.85

allows per match

Exeter City

2.12

Northampton

2.52

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Exeter City-0.29scores less

Northampton-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

72%

Exeter City or Northampton

78%

Draw or Northampton

50%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

29%

Northampton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

87%

Exeter City 2+ goals

60%

Exeter City 3+ goals

33%

Northampton 1+ goals

77%

Northampton 2+ goals

44%

Northampton 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

64%

Northampton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.56 + Northampton defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.04

Northampton attack 0.85 + Exeter City defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Exeter City scores more

50%

level

22%

Northampton scores more

28%

Exeter City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

P. Brough

Northampton · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

Zak Jules

20'

S. Hoskins↳ S. McWilliams

35'

Kieron Bowie

41'

Patrick Brough

44'

Sam Sherring

56'

J. Scott← Y. Wildschut

62'

Akinwale Odimayo

66'

H. Kite← V. Harper

72'

J. Aitchison← S. Cox

72'

J. Fitzwater← P. Sweeney

80'

T. Simpson← S. Hoskins

80'

E. Monthe← L. Appéré

84'

Emmanuel Monthe

90+1'

B. Fox← S. McWilliams

90+3'

H. Lintott← A. Odimayo

90+2'

P. Brough↳ K. Bowie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterNorthampton

Overview

66%Possession34%

10Total Shots11

6Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target7

2Off Target1

6Blocked3

7Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

526Total Passes275

378Accurate Passes149

72%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

2Offsides5