Exeter City 1–2 Northampton: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

P. Amond 50'

M. Pinnock 74'

J. Sowerby 33'

12/7/2021

League Two · Round 20St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Exeter City44%

×Draw27%

Northampton30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Exeter City

1.39

Northampton

1.10

Exeter City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 88 away

1.53

creates per match

1.24

0.96

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

70%

Exeter City or Northampton

73%

Draw or Northampton

56%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

21%

Northampton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

75%

Exeter City 2+ goals

40%

Exeter City 3+ goals

16%

Northampton 1+ goals

67%

Northampton 2+ goals

30%

Northampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

59%

Northampton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Northampton attack 1.24 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Exeter City scores more

44%

level

27%

Northampton scores more

30%

Exeter City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Hoskins

Northampton · M

7.7

Match Events

33'

J. Sowerby

35'

Shaun McWilliams

46'

J. Flores← S. McWilliams

50'

P. Amond↳ J. Key

56'

Josh Key

71'

Jon Guthrie

74'

M. Pinnock↳ S. Hoskins

78'

Jake Caprice

79'

K. Taylor← G. Ray

79'

J. Coley← P. Amond

83'

B. Seymour← H. Kite

88'

N. Kabamba← J. Flores

88'

B. Ashley-Seal← D. Rose

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterNorthampton

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots8

4Corners0

11Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots8

6On Target5

5Off Target2

4Blocked1

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

377Total Passes300

206Accurate Passes144

55%Pass Accuracy48%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2