Exeter City 1–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lincoln

R. Trevitt 81'

A. Smith 20'

10/28/2023

League One · Round 16St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Exeter City30%

×Draw23%

Lincoln47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.75

Exeter City

1.34

Lincoln

1.75

Lincoln creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.56

creates per match

1.38

2.12

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Exeter City

1.56

Lincoln

1.38

allows per match

Exeter City

2.12

Lincoln

1.13

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Exeter City-0.29scores less

Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

53%

Exeter City or Lincoln

77%

Draw or Lincoln

70%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

13%

Lincoln wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

74%

Exeter City 2+ goals

39%

Exeter City 3+ goals

15%

Lincoln 1+ goals

83%

Lincoln 2+ goals

52%

Lincoln 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

39%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.56 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Exeter City defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Exeter City scores more

30%

level

23%

Lincoln scores more

47%

Lincoln at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Trevitt

Exeter City · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

A. Smith↳ P. O'Connor

40'

Ethan Hamilton

43'

Hakeeb Adelakun

53'

James Scott

58'

Y. Wildschut← A. Muskwe

58'

T. Carroll← J. Aitchison

58'

68'

77'

78'

78'

81'

R. Trevitt↳ D. Mitchell

88'

89'

90+3'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterLincoln

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots12

7Corners9

10Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots12

5On Target3

8Off Target6

3Blocked3

12Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

415Total Passes322

300Accurate Passes189

72%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

4Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

League One: Exeter City 1–1 Lincoln

Exeter City and Lincoln drew 1-1 in League One on October 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Smith (20'), R. Trevitt (81').

Exeter City controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.

Exeter City vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Exeter City 1–1 Lincoln